By Anatoly Medetsky
State control over the gas and oil industries
may begin declining in 2013, the government said in an energy
policy paper published Thursday.
Under the plan, titled “Energy Strategy 2030,”
the economy and budget will steadily move away from the reliance on
energy exports, spurring the changes.
“In these conditions, direct government
involvement in the development of the energy sector will gradually
weaken,” the paper said.
Authorities will increasingly seek private
partners, especially for construction and the upgrade of energy
facilities, it said.
The paper, the brainchild of a group of
ministries led by the Energy Ministry, was published on the
government web site after being signed by Prime Minister Vladimir
Putin on Nov. 13. It divides the period to 2030 into three phases,
the first tentatively stretching to 2013 or 2015.
The government is planning to reduce its
interference in the energy sector in the second phase, which would
run to 2020 or 2022, the paper said. Officials will encourage the
creation of publicly traded energy companies with private pension
funds as shareholders.
The time frame for withdrawing from the sector
appears to comply with the 2012 deadline that President Dmitry
Medvedev set for the government in his state-of-the-nation address
earlier this month to determine what assets it wants to keep or
privatize.
The policy could eventually bring about
thousands of small, private energy producers, which would create
jobs, if taxes also become more bearable, said Chirvani Abdoullaev,
an analyst at Alfa Bank.
“If the state leaves the scene, the efficiency
of the assets will increase,” he said. “Private capital will pour
in, upgrading the industry and making it more competitive.”
In the run-up to 2030, the government’s role in
the sector will contract further — to merely providing “support for
innovations,” as the energy industry’s share of the economy will
continue to slide, the policy paper said.
In a nod to the economic crisis, the government
said it would remove barriers for foreign companies that want to
invest in energy.
The announcement — which follows Putin’s recent
meeting with foreign energy executives to invite them to Yamal gas
projects — is because there’s a chance the economic crisis may
still hit harder and last longer than expected, the paper said.
The strategy sets a goal of increasing the share
of foreign direct investment in the energy industry to 5 percent.
It does not say what the proportion is now.
Russia will not repeat its record crude exports
of 253 million tons, achieved in 2005, because it will ramp up
exports of refined oil products instead, the plan said.
This bodes ill for European refineries and
Russia’s environment, because refining tends to cause a lot of
pollution, Abdoullaev said.
“What’s the point of spending to import all this
refining equipment and then having to deal with the filth of this
contaminated water and air?” he said.
The strategy predicts production of at least 530
million tons of oil in 2030, up from last year’s 487.6 million.
That will be the most Russia will ever produce in a year, it
said.
“Oil output will reach the technological and
economic maximum,” the paper said. “Exports of oil and oil products
will tend to decrease.”
Abdoullaev said the introduction of new
technology and tax cuts could allow output to grow further.
Gas exports to Europe are set to increase during
the first phase but will stop growing afterward, the paper said,
without naming figures and reasons.
In fact, things could be the other way
around, said Alexander Nazarov, an analyst at Metropol. Exports are
likely to stay at the same level in the near future because of the
economic downturn, he said.
“This strategy is out of touch with the reality.
It’s outdated,” he said.
Gas output will grow steadily to at least 885
billion cubic meters in 2030, from 664 bcm last year, according to
the paper.
It also said the government would start
gradually introducing market-based gas prices locally in 2011 by
expanding the unregulated share of the market. Officials expect the
process to be completed during the first phase of the plan.
To soften the “inevitable” increase in prices,
the government will make sure gas companies have enough investment
money from tax breaks, government loans and subsidies, the strategy
said.